Groundhog prognosticators disagree so pick your rodent

February 11, 2014 by  

Valley Stream has, like many parts of the country, been hit repeatedly with abnormally cold weather in recent weeks, but there is hope of an early spring – thanks to Mel and Hal, our local groundhog prognosticators.

Although at the start of the month, the famous Punxsutawney Phil and nearby Staten Island Chuck said six more weeks of winter weather was our fate, Mel and Hal disagreed. Malverne Mel and Holtsville Hal, each of them less than an hour’s drive from Valley Stream, did not see their shadows and flee back into their burrows – thereby predicting that spring is just around the corner.

Phil is over 300 miles from Valley Stream, so his prediction might not extend to us. That leaves two votes for spring and one for a continuation of winter. Another way to look at the situation is to compare track records. Punxstawney Phil, while the most famous of the weather predicting rodents, is the least reliable, being right only 44% of time. Mel has performed a little bit better at 56% while Hal has been accurate 60% of the time. Chuck, who lives the closest, has the highest accuracy rate; he has been right 82% of the time.

Regardless of which rodents or combination of rodents residents choose to believe, spring will eventually come and each local print company is likely to be busy with catalog printing in anticipation warmer weather.

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